Repopulating and Rewilding a Historical Agricultural Landscape: 2030–2100 Transition

Abstract

Spain is at the forefront of organic agriculture in Europe and entering carbon farming but is facing rural depopulation, draughts, soil erosion and pervasive glyphosate pollution in water. These are factors affecting the rural ecosystem, which is simulated here as a 4-species Lotka-Volterra model from 2030 through 2100. The role of interstitial permaculture (IP) in solving for land fragmentation and loss of local agricultural knowledge and practices, is explored. Landscape ecology, and especially the role of hedgerows in bocage and dehesa landscapes give credence to IP as a form of agroforestry. The Lotka-Volterra simulation captures the high interconnectedness of species in the local agroecosystem. The simulation also provides insight into the limits of a viable transition to sustainable agriculture: reforestation is fostered by the inflow of permaculturists, but wolves cannot by themselves stem the tide of boar growth. Rather, human intervention throughout Europe seems to be required. Eventually, the model manages to bring boar, wolf and human populations to a certain balance, oscillating near the carrying capacity of the system, but tree populations keep well below carrying capacity, suggesting more reforestation efforts. The ecobenefits resulting from the ecosystem’s evolution fostered by permaculture were found to be in terms of soil protection hence soil organic carbon sequestration. A striking suggestion of the model regarding herbivory is that boar meat should be consumed by humans, a practice in the area during the Holocene, and supported by new research in Europe.