Keywords
dual carbon goals
high-quality development
GIS-LCA
spatiotemporal pattern
How to Cite
Abstract
Forest carbon sinks are a crucial component in achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals. This study integrates GIS-LCA technology to systematically examine the spatiotemporal evolution of China’s forest carbon sinks and quantitatively assess afforestation carbon sequestration efficiency and carbon sink influencing mechanisms. The research findings indicate: (1) From 2003 to 2022, China’s total forest carbon sink increased from 11.78 billion tons to 19.76 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of 2.9%. This overall upward trend corroborates the research findings of other domestic scholars. The center of forest carbon sinks is mainly located in Shaanxi Province, showing a clear southeastward migration trend. (2) Forest carbon sink capacity exhibits significant regional differentiation: cold spot areas in the northeast gradually weakened, while hot spot areas in the west peaked in 2015 and subsequently declined. This shift reflects the complex interplay between climate change and human activities on carbon sink capacity. (3) Provincial-level analysis of afforestation carbon sequestration efficiency based on GIS-LCA technology reveals notable spatial disparities, with a national average of 579 t CO₂/km². Eastern provinces performed the best, averaging 749.6 t CO₂/km², while central and western provinces showed similar efficiencies at 471.5 t CO₂/km² and 494.4 t CO₂/km², respectively. This study provides theoretical support for advancing the high-quality development of China’s forest carbon sinks and achieving carbon neutrality goals.
References
Begemann, A., Dolriis, C., Onatunji, A., Chimisso, C., & Winkel, G. (2025). The politics of sustainable finance for forests: Interests, beliefs and advocacy coalitions shaping forest sustainability criteria in the making of the EU Taxonomy. Global Environmental Change, 92, 103001. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103001
Chen, P., Duan, J., & Wang, Y. (2025). Spatio-temporal evolution and driving forces of urban gravity centers and ecological security risk gravity centers in China. Ecological Indicators, 170, 113025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.113025
Gao, D., Gao, W., Ma, Z., Zhu, L., Tian, J., Liu, S., Yu, Y., Zhang, G., & Gao, Q. (2025). Trends and characteristics of global CH4 emissions: Insights from UNFCCC greenhouse gas inventories. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 18(5), 100637. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100637
García-Pérez, S., Sierra-Pérez, J., & Boschmonart-Rives, J. (2018). Environmental assessment at the urban level combining LCA-GIS methodologies: A case study of energy retrofits in the Barcelona metropolitan area. Building and Environment, 134, 191–204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2018.01.041
Guillén-Lambea, S., Sierra-Pérez, J., García-Pérez, S., Montealegre, A. L., & Monzón-Chavarrías, M. (2023). Energy Self-Sufficiency Urban Module (ESSUM): GIS-LCA-based multi-criteria methodology to analyze the urban potential of solar energy generation and its environmental implications. Science of the Total Environment, 879, 163077.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163077
He, X., Huang, H., & Hu, W. (2025). Analyzing the impact of government subsidies and other socioeconomic factors on blue carbon sinks in the coastal regions. Ecological Economics, 237, 108718. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108718
He, Y., & Ren, Y. (2023). Can carbon sink insurance and financial subsidies improve the carbon sequestration capacity of forestry? Journal of Cleaner Production, 397, 136618. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136618
Hu, Y., Chen, Y., & Wu, S.-H. (2021). Synergy between the Convention on Biological Diversity and the UNFCCC in China. Advances in Climate Change Research, 12(2), 287–295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.011
Hubbart, J. A., Comacho, F., Gazal, K., Martins, L., Stephan, K., & Wood-Turner, K. (2025). Growing opportunities: Considering a thriving agroforestry industry in Appalachia, USA. Agricultural & Rural Studies, 3(2), 12.
http://doi.org/10.59978/ar03020007
Iamtrakul, P., Chayphong, S., & Gao, W. (2025). Geospatial analytics for promoting a healthy peri-urban city: A Health-Cartographic Perspective. Journal of Urban Management. https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.jum.2025.05.013
Ji, Y., Li, M., Zhao, Q., Geng, J., Liu, J., & Yu, K. (2025). Forest carbon stock ecological risk assessment in Minjiang River basin based on the adaptive cycle model. Ecological Indicators, 176, 113668.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113668
Kato, H. (2025). Spatial patterns and geographic characteristics of tourism-accommodation intensity hotspots in Kyoto city. Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights, 6(1), 100178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annale.2025.100178
Li, L., Li, J., Wang, X., & Sun, S. (2023). Spatio-temporal evolution and gravity center change of carbon emissions in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area and the influencing factors. Heliyon, 9(6), e16596.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16596
Li, X., Ning, Z., & Yang, H. (2022). A review of the relationship between China’s key forestry ecology projects and carbon market under carbon neutrality. Trees, Forests and People, 9, 100311.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2022.100311
Liu, J., Ren, Y., Hong, Y., & Glauben, T. (2023). Does forest farm carbon sink projects affect agricultural development? Evidence from a Quasi-experiment in China. Journal of Environmental Management, 335, 117500.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117500
Millock, K., & Ollivier, H. (2025). The clean development mechanism. In T. Lundgren, M. Bostian, & S. Managi (Eds.), Encyclopedia of energy, natural resource, and environmental economics (2rd Edition) (pp. 22–30). Elsevier.
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-91013-2.00017-4
Mohan, P. S. (2025). International climate finance in land use, land use change and forestry in Caribbean Small Island Developing States. Forest Policy and Economics, 170, 103383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103383
Nasiritousi, N., Buylova, A., & Linnér, B.-O. (2025). Matching supply and demand? Exploring UNFCCC reform options. Earth System Governance, 23, 100241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esg.2025.100241
National Forestry and Grassland Administration. (2021). Guidelines for validation and verification of forestry carbon projects.
https://openstd.samr.gov.cn/bzgk/std/newGbInfo?hcno=3CF8EE0F34DB617CF904AD930703D55E
Nian, H., Wang, H., & Zhang, Z. (2025). Carbon credit and credibility in lawsuit: Evidence from CCER firms in China. Energy Economics, 146, 108480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108480
Pan, Y., Birdsey, R. A., Phillips, O. L., Houghton, R. A., Fang, J., Kauppi, P. E., Keith, H., Kurz, W. A., Ito, A., Lewis, S. L., Nabuurs, G.-J., Shvidenko, A., Hashimoto, S., Lerink, B., Schepaschenko, D., Castanho, A., & Murdiyarso, D. (2024). The enduring world forest carbon sink. Nature, 631(8021), 563–569. http://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07602-x
State Council of China. (2021). Guidelines on Accelerating the Establishment of a Green, Low-Carbon, and Circular Economic Development System. https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2021-02/22/content_5588274.htm?5xyFrom=site-NT
Tian, S., Wu, W., Chen, S., Li, Z., & Li, K. (2025). Global mismatch between ecosystem service supply and demand driven by climate change and human activity. Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 26, 100573.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2025.100573
von Lüpke, H., Mármarosi, B., Aebischer, C., Trushin, E., Bolaños, M., Webb, T., Nascimento, E., Suroso, D., & Breviglieri, G. (2025). Does international climate finance contribute to the adoption of zero deforestation policies? Insights from Brazil and Indonesia. Forest Policy and Economics, 174, 103480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103480
Wang, J., You, K., Qi, L., & Ren, H. (2022). Gravity center change of carbon emissions in Chinese residential building sector: Differences between urban and rural area. Energy Reports, 8, 10644–10656.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.08.208
Wang, T., Li, H., & Accatino, F. (2024). A theoretical framework for value co-creation analysis in carbon sink projects. Journal of Cleaner Production, 477, 143854. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143854
Wise, A., & Parker, H. (2025). Innovation in global forestry: Evolution towards a diversified industry. Journal of Business Research, 189, 115140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2024.115140
Wu, W. G., Xu, Q. Q., Yang, L. Y., & Liu, Y. (2024). Analysis on the potential of forest carbon sequestration and its economic impact on carbon neutrality in China. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, (08), 128–144. (In Chinese)
Xue, L. F., Luo, X. F., Li, Z. L., & Wu, X. R. (2017). Spatial spillover effects and influencing factors of forest carbon sinks in China: A spatial econometric analysis based on forest resource inventory data from 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in mainland China. Journal of Natural Resources, 32(10), 1744–1754. (In Chinese)
Xu, S. (2024). Forestry offsets under China’s certificated emission reduction (CCER) for carbon neutrality: Regulatory gaps and the ways forward. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 16(1), 140–156.
https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2022-0047
Yang, D., & Park, H. (2025). Integrity challenges in carbon markets: Comparing UNFCCC and voluntary REDD+ verification in the Amazon Biome. Environmental Science & Policy, 169, 104080.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104080
Yang, J., Fang, C., Zhang, L., & Yang, Y. (2025). Carbon sink potential and contributions to dual carbon goals of the grain for green program in the arid regions of Northwest China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 220, 108355.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108355
Yao, T., Wu, C., Yeh, P. J.-F., Hu, B. X., Jiao, Y., Li, Q., & Niu, J. (2025). Widespread global enhancement of vegetation resistance to compound dry-hot events due to anthropogenic climate change. Ecological Indicators, 178, 113880. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113880
Zhang, J., Dong, Y., Liu, Y., Kang, Y., Xie, S., & Xu, H. (2025). Knowledge domain and emerging trends in monitoring of forest fires using remote sensing: A scientometric review based on CiteSpace analysis. Agricultural & Rural Studies, 3(2), 29. http://doi.org/10.59978/ar03020008
Zhang, X., Yang, H., & Zhang, X. (2016). China’s forestry carbon pool level and development trend from 1993 to 2033. Resources Science, 38(02), 290–299. (In Chinese)
Zhang, X., & Yao, S. (2024). Spatial convergence and differentiation characteristics of ecological efficiency of forestry carbon sink: Evidence from China. Geosystems and Geoenvironment, 3(1), 100241.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geogeo.2023.100241
Zhou, Y., He, L., Zhang, E., Lu, D., & Lin, A. (2025). Impact of cropland use transformation on ecosystem carbon sinks in a typical agro-forestry mixed region: An analysis from explicit and implicit perspectives. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 115, 107979. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2025.107979
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2025 Yihang Hu, Zijin Mo, Ting Chen, Yufei Zou, Yunshu Ma, Xiaohui Ma